Forex & Commodity Tips & Targets

Forex & Commodity Tips & Tricks


January, 2010

Latest Commodity Update

Jan 11

Posted by FxCommcalls in Bullion Update, Commodity Update | No Comments

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose to a new 15 month high on speculation that fuel demand will rebound as freezing temperatures in the northern hemisphere and weakening dollar also supported the prices.
The oil advanced for the second day as Chinese crude imports climbed to a record 203.8 million metric tons last year weighing over weak last weeks weak US NFP data. Chevron corp, the second largest US energy producer said the Makaraba-utonana pipeline it operates in the southern Nigeria’s delta state was breached on Jan 8, affecting 20,000 barrels of crude oil production a day. Attacks by armed groups in Nigeria’s oil rich delta region have cut the country’s output by more than 25 percent since 2006. Crude Feb month contract was trading at $83.5 gaining 1.57 percent. Crude oil mcx Dec contract was trading at Rs 3790 gaining 0.03 percent.

Base Metals

Copper futures prices rallied for the first time in last three days as Chinese imports and weak dollar boosted investors confidence in the metal. The china imported 369,368 metric tons of copper and its products in December, 27 percent increase from November. The Chinese exports of all products climbed for the first time in 14 months, according to census bureau. LME copper inventories rose by 4575 metric tons and mcx copper is trading at 348.10 gaining 0.96 percent.

 

Technical Trends

GOLD MCX Feb

While above 17000 prices could stay firm and could target 17080/17125 followed by 17250 levels. Unexpected fall below 16978 could see a move lower towards 16920 followed by 16870 levels.
Res: 17080/ 17160 Supp: 16970/16920

Silver MCX Mar:

As long as 28320 holds, prices could move up and find resistance at 28600 initially followed by 28730/29000 levels. If unable to hold 28300 expect a corrective move towards 28150/27980.
Res: 28610/28730 Supp: 28300/ 27980

CRUDE MCX Jan

Dips to 3763 may find support for a rise towards 3805 initially. Rallies above 3812 could invite fresh rallies towards 3848/3878. Falls below 3752 may cause doubts on the bullish view.
Res: 3812/3870 Supp: 3762/3736

Natural Gas MCX Jan

As long as support at 251/249 holds prices could stay firm and edge higher towards 258/261 followed by 264. Falls below 249 may negate the view and target 241.
Res: 258/264 Supp: 254/247

Copper MCX Feb

Dips to 347/345 hold downside expect to move up and find resistance at 349/350.50 followed by 354. If unable to hold 345 drag prices lower towards 343/341 levels.
Res: 349/351 Supp: 347/ 345

Lead MCX Jan

As long as 118.70/120 caps the upside expect a corrective fall towards 117/116 followed by 115.30. Needs to break 120 to negate the view.
Res: 118.70/120 Supp: 117/ 116

Nickel MCX Jan

Moves to 844 may find resistance for a fall towards 831/826. Break below 825 could invite fresh sell off towards 814/802. Needs to break 847 to negate the view.
Res: 845/862 Supp: 831// 824

Zinc MCX Jan

If 118 cap the upside expect a fall towards 116.50/115.50. Need to break 118.70 to negate the view.
Res 118/119 Sup: 116.70/115

Aluminium MCX Jan

If 105 expects to move up and target 106/106.80followed by 107.60 Needs to break 104.20 to negate the view.
Res: 106.20/107 Sup: 105/104.40

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USD-INR Currency Future Report (Traded @ NSE)

Jan 8

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

VOLUMES

There has been a consistent month on month increase in the number of contracts traded in Currency Futures segment at NSE. The number of contracts traded in the last five days is as follows:

Trade Date

Total Contracts

Total Value (Rs. Cr)

RBI Reference Rate

07-Jan-10

3551774

16,264.38

45.87

06-Jan-10

3122643

14,404.19

46.12

05-Jan-10

2789552

12,904.65

46.20

04-Jan-10

3004576

13,968.32

46.51

01-Jan-10

998024

4,662.09

46.65

Avg Daily Volumes

Dec’09

USD

1952.59 Mio

Nov’09

USD

1689.75 Mio

Oct’09

USD

1613.40 Mio

Sep’09

USD

1171.15 Mio

Aug’09

USD

933.63 Mio

Jul’ 09

USD

864.70 Mio

Jun’09

USD

714.75 Mio

May 09

USD

684.12 Mio

Apr’09

USD

490.72 Mio

Mar’09

USD

521.43 Mio

Price watch on 7-01-2010

 

Contract

Best Bid

Best Ask

Spread

LTP

Volume

Value(crores)

OI

No. of Trades

USDINR 270110

1000

45.725

45.733

257

0.0075

45.733

3466001

15870.69

397054

49204

USDINR 240210

4

45.8

45.843

80

0.0425

45.81

78018

358

83162

1352

USDINR 290310

200

45.855

45.94

100

0.085

45.935

6813

31.32

51007

172

USDINR 280410

50

46

46.08

3

0.08

46.06

799

3.68

42349

65

USDINR 270510

2

45.95

46.25

50

0.3

46.2

91

0.42

2752

6

USDINR 280610

1

45.88

46.42

1

0.54

46.28

10

0.04

2422

9

USDINR 280710

1

46.153

46.79

1

0.6375

46.2

25

0.11

987

3

USDINR 270810

1

46.053

46.92

36

0.8675

46.5

10

0.04

449

2

USDINR 280910

3

46.313

46.89

1

0.5775

­

­

­

600

­

USDINR 271010

1

46.21

46.698

1

0.4875

46.5

5

0.02

167

2

USDINR 261110

1

46.41

46.99

2

0.58

46.42

1

­

237

1

USDINR 291210

1

46.13

47.12

1

0.99

46.5

1

­

37

1

Total

3551774

16264.32

581223

50817

CLIENT/ MEMBER LEVEL POSITION LIMITS

At Client level ­6% of OI or USD 10 million whichever is higher At Member level ­15% of OI or USD 50 million whichever is higher At Bank level ­15% of OI or USD 100 million whichever is higher

The client level position limit for 08.01.10 is USD 35.00 Mio The member level position limit for 08.01.10 is USD 87.49 Mio The Bank level position limit for 08.01.10 is USD 100.00 Mio

Client/Member level position limit for last five days are given below:

———-

Open Interest

30 Day Moving Average of Currency Futures (million USD)

Client position limit for the next trading day ( million USD)

Member position limit for the next trading day ( million USD)

07-Jan-10

583267

9621.73

35.00

87.49

06-Jan-10

530557

1999.37

31.83

79.58

05-Jan-10

514323

1939.84

30.86

77.15

04-Jan-10

493837

1909.09

29.63

74.08

01-Jan-10

425183

1860.64

25.51

63.78

————-

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Commodity Update

Jan 8

Posted by FxCommcalls in Bullion Update, Commodity Update | No Comments

Gold prices fell as the dollar rose broadly ahead of a key U.S. employment report and as bullion investors took profits after recent gains. Prices had climbed 4 per cent in the first three trading sessions of 2010. “With the employment report coming in tomorrow, there is a lot of caution in all the markets,” said Bill O’Neill, partner at Logic dvisors. “Gold has had a nice run since the beginning of the year and is due for some consolidation.”

Gold futures fell Thursday for the first session in the past five as jitters that China may raise interest rates and cut global growth pressured commodities and lifted the dollar, reducing the metal’s investment appeal.

Copper and Aluminium Open Interest – Price-wise, 2010 has started with a bang, with both copper and aluminium making strong gains. Interestingly, while open interest for aluminium has picked up in conjunction with rising prices, indicating new long positions have been added, copper open interest has fallen slightly, suggesting that some of the red metal’s recent strength has been due to short covering activity.

• Gold is running into resistance at $1140—$1,142. We expect the market to remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data and as a result profit-taking ahead of the data release might take place.

• We expect large dips in platinum and palladium to be bought.

• After the bearish data, which registered a large build in crude and gasoline inventories, and only a small draw of 233K barrels in the middle distillates, it appears many market participants had to cover short positions.

• The base metals had a very strong day price-wise on Wednesday, with much of the complex making impressive gains. Aluminium had another exceptionally busy day, with over 14,400 lots trading on LME Select, while copper and lead also saw very good volumes. The base metals are a little softer this morning, with prices pulling back after yesterday’s rally.

 

 

Gold is running into resistance at $1140—$1,142. We expect the market to remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data and, as a result, profit-taking may emerge ahead of the data. There was good physical selling in gold this morning in Asia. Shanghai arbitrage selling added to the downwards pressure in gold. Support is at $1,126 and $1,116.

After a good rally yesterday platinum and palladium are both trading lower. Both metals have seen a rise in speculative interest ahead of the expected launch of the US based ETF’s as well as gaining support from positive auto sales numbers. We expect large dips in platinum and palladium to be bought. Platinum support is at $1,525 and resistance at $1,575. US ADP employment numbers registered a decline of 84K jobs in December, slightly below the expected decline of 75K. ADP employment figures and tomorrow’s non-farm payroll numbers are highly correlated. However, since March, when markets bottomed, ADP figures have been lower than the NFP numbers every month – by an average of 72K. Should this trend continue in the December figures, we could look at a non-farm payroll number of between 0 and -12K. The market expects zero
change in December.

A better-than-expected non-farm payroll number could see equity markets rally. Looking at the recent correlation between equity markets and precious metals, we expect platinum and palladium to benefit most from good employment numbers.

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Crude Oil Tips @ MCX

Jan 6

Posted by FxCommcalls in Commodity Update | 3 Comments

Crude oil rose as cold weather was seen boosting heating demand, Russia and Belarus feuded over oil pricing and signs of manufacturing strength fed hopes for more energy demand.

Global oil consumption will average 85.22 million barrels a day this year, the Energy Department said in its monthly Short- Term Energy Outlook on Dec. 8. That is down 1.1 p.c. from a record 86.14 n barrels a day in 2007.

Crude oil for far-month March contract rose by Rs 20, or 0.52 per cent, to Rs 3,845 per barrel with an open interest of 190 lots.

The oil for delivery in January also edged up by Rs 16, or 0.42 per cent, to Rs 3,782 per barrel in 13,364 lots.

Marketmen said increased buying activity on firming global trend mainly led to rise in crude oil futures prices.

Now support for the crude is seen at 3731 and below could see a test of 3697. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 3789, a move above could see prices testing 3813.

Trading Tips:

Crude trading range is 3700-3820.
Crude oil rose as cold weather was seen boosting heating demand
Crude oil is now having support at 3740 and resistance at 3802 level
Global oil consumption will average 85.22 million barrels a day this year

BUY CRUDE JAN AT 3750-3765
SL 3732
TGT 3778-3790-3805-3835.

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Crude Update

Jan 4

Posted by FxCommcalls in Commodity Update | No Comments

Crude managed to hit a high of $80 on the last trading day of the year as investors remained upbeat about the demand prospects in near term and falling inventories lifted the sentiments up. The commodity once again nudged near its highest level in the year after the US crude inventories slid further, extending the recent drawdown. On New Year’s eve, Nymex February West Texas Intermediate hit the $80 mark before settling well above at $79a barrel, a rise of 78 per cent in 2009.

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were down 1.5 mn barrels to 326.0 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline were down 300,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were down 1.9 million barrels. The DOE also said that refinery use increased from 80.0% to 80.3% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up 1.1% from a year ago while distillate demand was down 2.8% from a year ago. The domestic crude oil production, meanwhile fell for a fifth week in a row to 5512 thousand barrels as on week ended 25 December 2009 compared to 5524 thousand barrels in previous week.

This ensured that oil recovered bulk of its lost ground and ends the year on a high note. Earlier in the month, fueled by S&P’s downgrade of Greece’s credit rating and the possibility of more downgrades of Euro Zone sovereign debt, particularly Spain and Ireland, dollar surged to a fresh 3 and half month high against the Euro. Oil had briefly fallen under $70 following the dollar’s exuberance and a persistent slide in US inventories. Tensions in Iran between opposition supporters and the government and by cold winter weather in the US assisted the commodity further even as the other markets remained trapped in the year end lull.

MCX Crude oil futures went up above Rs 3700 per barrel as the year end approached and looks likely to be in for a fresh rally in case the mark holds. The prices should gain some more ground given that the expiry in still around two and half weeks away and fresh longs could be seen getting build if the global prices snap pass $80 barrier.

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