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Posts Tagged crude oil future

Crude Back On Track After A “Blast”

Sep 3

Posted by FxCommcalls in Commodity Update | No Comments

Crude Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday after two straight days of decline and rose more than 2 percent, on getting strong manufacturing data from US and China, reviving risk appetite, also the dollar weakened against a basket of other currencies. Though the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude oil stockpiles rose 3.43 million barrels last week, more than expected, but the US manufacturing sector grew faster than expected in August and relieved the concern about tepid oil demand.

Oil rebounded after the U.S. Coast Guard reported the blast, which occurred 90 miles (145 kilometers) off the Louisiana coast. The Obama administration instituted a temporary moratorium on deep-water oil and gas drilling in the Gulf on May 27 in reaction to a BP Plc oil spill, the worst in U.S. history.

Meanwhile in a survey, it was shown that OPEC crude oil supply fell in August to the lowest since November 2009 as reduced supplies from Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq offset increased output in Angola.

Benchmark crude for October delivery rose $1.99, or 2.77 percent, to settle at $73.91, after trading in a range of $71.67 to $74.48 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London Brent crude for October rose $1.93 to $73.85 on the ICE.

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Crude Oil Update

Feb 17

Posted by FxCommcalls in Commodity Update | No Comments

Technical Recap

Bulls really controlled the action last week beginning with a boost off of the 200-day moving average followed by reinforced settlements above the crucial $72.50 benchmark area.  Prices trended higher for the week through Thursday to $75.70 before pulling back on Friday on a round of profit taking ahead of the 50 and 100-day moving averages.  The market closed firm on the week just above the 7-week dowtrend channel at $74.00 level with a minor uptrend potentially developing early this week.

We are still maintaining settlements below the broken key longer term Quarterly trend lines at the $77.00 to 78.00 range leaves the market vulnerable to renewed selling.  With options expiration on Today (Wednesday), we anticipate rallies early this week, and then begin fade against $78.00 to 80.00 leading to a turnover later in the week.

Technical Outlook

Upside:

The market reversed the 7-week downtrend to start the week off rallying off the $74.00 level on Tuesday. Maintaining settlements above $74.00 to 75.00 supports advances this week targeting the key broken Quarterly trends in the $77.00 to 78.00 range.  Trade or settlements above $78.00 brings the $80.00 psychological mark easily in range for the week.  Any settlements above $80.00 will provide solid Bullish reinforcement with the potential to propel the market back to the Jan 2010 highs at $84.00.  If momentum fades out in the $77.00-78.00 range, longs should cover all positions.

Downside:

Failing rallies at the $77.00-78.00 range generates a sell signal for an initial drive back to the broken 7-week downtrend at $74.00.  Settlements below $74.00 reinforces short term weakness as it puts prices back the weekly downtrend channel while violating the minor daily uptrend.  The objective below $74.00 is placed at the key $72.50-71.75 Support range where shorts should initially scale back positions.  Trade and settlements below $72.50-71.75 will rekindle sustainable Bear forces triggering sell offs targeting the current 2010 lows at $70.00 to 69.50 while bringing the next major objective in range at $68.50-68.00.  A settlement below $70.00 on the week, or trade that takes out the $68.00 level, lines up for $65.00 oil in the coming weeks.

 

Whats Making the News

  1. Crude futures ended sharply higher Tuesday as investors bet that Greece’s debt problems wouldn’t spill over to dent demand for commodities. Light, sweet crude for March delivery settled up $2.88, or 3.9%, at $77.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in its biggest one-day gain since Sept. 30. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled $3.17, or 4.4%, higher at $75.68 a barrel.
  2. Crude oil prices were higher Tuesday after a new report showing that manufacturing activity is on the rise in the New York region and on a weaker US dollar that made purchases in other currencies cheaper for buyers.
  3. With no indication of a fuel price hike happening in the near future, the public sector oil refiners are hoping that crude prices do not spin out of control in 2010-11. Refiners still hope Crude Oil will stay at $75 in 2010-2011.
  4. Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) bought 1 million barrels each of Algerian and Libyan crude in a tender for oil loading in April, trade sources said on Tuesday.
  5. Euro hits a high for the day at 1.3730 cable briefly breaks 1.5700 on the back of higher oil prices, now at 77.15

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Crude Oil Tips @ MCX

Jan 6

Posted by FxCommcalls in Commodity Update | 2 Comments

Crude oil rose as cold weather was seen boosting heating demand, Russia and Belarus feuded over oil pricing and signs of manufacturing strength fed hopes for more energy demand.

Global oil consumption will average 85.22 million barrels a day this year, the Energy Department said in its monthly Short- Term Energy Outlook on Dec. 8. That is down 1.1 p.c. from a record 86.14 n barrels a day in 2007.

Crude oil for far-month March contract rose by Rs 20, or 0.52 per cent, to Rs 3,845 per barrel with an open interest of 190 lots.

The oil for delivery in January also edged up by Rs 16, or 0.42 per cent, to Rs 3,782 per barrel in 13,364 lots.

Marketmen said increased buying activity on firming global trend mainly led to rise in crude oil futures prices.

Now support for the crude is seen at 3731 and below could see a test of 3697. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 3789, a move above could see prices testing 3813.

Trading Tips:

Crude trading range is 3700-3820.
Crude oil rose as cold weather was seen boosting heating demand
Crude oil is now having support at 3740 and resistance at 3802 level
Global oil consumption will average 85.22 million barrels a day this year

BUY CRUDE JAN AT 3750-3765
SL 3732
TGT 3778-3790-3805-3835.

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Crude Update

Jan 4

Posted by FxCommcalls in Commodity Update | No Comments

Crude managed to hit a high of $80 on the last trading day of the year as investors remained upbeat about the demand prospects in near term and falling inventories lifted the sentiments up. The commodity once again nudged near its highest level in the year after the US crude inventories slid further, extending the recent drawdown. On New Year’s eve, Nymex February West Texas Intermediate hit the $80 mark before settling well above at $79a barrel, a rise of 78 per cent in 2009.

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were down 1.5 mn barrels to 326.0 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline were down 300,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were down 1.9 million barrels. The DOE also said that refinery use increased from 80.0% to 80.3% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up 1.1% from a year ago while distillate demand was down 2.8% from a year ago. The domestic crude oil production, meanwhile fell for a fifth week in a row to 5512 thousand barrels as on week ended 25 December 2009 compared to 5524 thousand barrels in previous week.

This ensured that oil recovered bulk of its lost ground and ends the year on a high note. Earlier in the month, fueled by S&P’s downgrade of Greece’s credit rating and the possibility of more downgrades of Euro Zone sovereign debt, particularly Spain and Ireland, dollar surged to a fresh 3 and half month high against the Euro. Oil had briefly fallen under $70 following the dollar’s exuberance and a persistent slide in US inventories. Tensions in Iran between opposition supporters and the government and by cold winter weather in the US assisted the commodity further even as the other markets remained trapped in the year end lull.

MCX Crude oil futures went up above Rs 3700 per barrel as the year end approached and looks likely to be in for a fresh rally in case the mark holds. The prices should gain some more ground given that the expiry in still around two and half weeks away and fresh longs could be seen getting build if the global prices snap pass $80 barrier.

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MCX Update: Strategy For Trading

Dec 31

Posted by FxCommcalls in Bullion Update, Commodity Update | No Comments

GOLD FUTURE

(Last traded Price 16638)
The counter after gap down opening yesterday failed to move higher on weak global advice and remained range bound for the major part of the session except earlier to closing hours when it surged to day’s high at 16705, which however, remained short lived and the gold slipped back in closing minutes. The counter may remain volatile today taking cues from the world markets. The gold as appears on charts may slip further to 16574/16534 once it trades and remains below 16609. Strong resistance for the gold exists at 16678 which if crossed with volumes then the gold may move up to 16707/16726.

 

DOW JONES (LAST CLOSE 10548)
LONG ON DOW @10410 ON 21-12-09. NOW SL IS 10515. SELL IT BELOW 10515

COPPER (LAST CLOSE 344.65)
SELL COPPER BELOW 341 WITH SL OF 348.

CRUDE OIL

LONG ON @ 3290 ON 15-12-09. NOW SL IS 3685 . SELL IT BELOW 3685

GOLD
(LAST CLOSE 16652 )

SHORT ON GOLD @17070 ON 17-12-09 . NOW HOLD SHORT WITH SL OF 16725.

NATURAL GAS JANUARY
(LAST CLOSE 271.80)

LONG ON NG @274 ON 28-12-09. HOLD NG LONG WITH SL OF 266.

SILVER
(LAST CLOSE 26657 )

SHORT ON SILVER @27290 ON 29-12-09. NOW HOLD SHORT WITH SL OF 27005.

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