Forex & Commodity Updates

Forex & Commodity Updates


Posts Tagged Dollar Update

Forex: Technical Outlook/Resistance-Support

Mar 3

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

Technical Outlook

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD            1.3560                   1.3597, 1.3440
USD/ JPY                88.98                 89.36,   88.88
GBP/ USD            1.4922                   1.4997, 1.4853
USD/ CHF            1.0785                   1.0885, 1.0756
AUD/USD            0.9028                   0.9057, 0.8956
USD/CAD             1.0331                    1.0441, 1.0307
NZD/USD             0.6953                   0.7004, 0.6922
EUR/ JPY              120.55                   121.32, 119.75
EUR/ GBP            0.9070                   0.9091, 0.9016
GBP/ JPY              132.88                   133.73, 132.49
CHF/ JPY                82.40                   82.92,   81.86

 

Support                                Resistance                          Support                         Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                                                 USD/ JPY

L1.          1.3480                                   1.3965                                      86.95                    93.20

L2.          1.3245                                   1.4200                                      84.85                    95.50

L3.          1.3085                                   1.4495                                      82.30                    98.85

 

GBP/ USD                                                                              USD/ CHF

L1.          1.5345                                   1.5880                                   1.0540                                   1.0830

L2.          1.5160                                   1.6215                                   1.0350                                   1.1045

L3.          1.4950                                   1.6530                                   1.0040                                   1.1315

 

AUD/ USD                                                                              USD/ CAD

L1.          0.8555                                   0.8860                                   1.0560                                   1.0960

L2.          0.8225                                   0.9005                                   1.0400                                   1.1140

L3.          0.8105                                   0.9325                                   1.0150                                   1.1360

 

NZD/ USD                                                                              EUR/ JPY

L1.          0.6535                                   0.6985                                   118.50                                   124.85

L2.          0.6265                                   0.7295                                   115.65                                   128.90

L3.          0.6160                                   0.7430                                   112.05                                   132.85

 

EUR/ GBP                                                                               EUR/ CHF

L1.          0.8500                                   0.9175                                   1.4575                                   1.4875

L2.          0.8320                                   0.9290                                   1.4305                                   1.5010

L3.          0.8190                                   0.9430                                   1.4110                                   1.5450

 

GBP/ JPY                                                                                CHF/ JPY

L1.          135.85                                   141.75                                     81.40                                       85.25

L2.          131.10                                   146.35                                     78.95                                       87.65

L3.          129.35                                   152.90                                     75.05                                      91.60

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Currency Update: USD-CHF GBP-USD AUD-USD & 6 Month Chart Of EUR-USD

Jan 19

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

EUROUSD

 

USD-CHF @ 1.0258/61

R: 1.0290 / 1.0330-50 / 1.0380
S: 1.0250 /1.0200-1.0180 / 1.0130

The Resistance at 1.0290 is continuing to keep Swiss pressured on the downside. However, a break below the Support at 1.0250 was not seen during the day. As the broader picture continue to remain bearish, we expect the Resistance at 1.0290 to hold in the coming session and see a break below the Support at 1.0250. AS mentioned earlier a break below 1.0250 might pull it down towards 1.0200-1.0180. However, if the immediate Support at 1.0250 continues to hold and it gains upside momentum, a break above 1.0290 might see 1.0330-50 on the upside.

We expect the market to remain silent as the US market is closed today on account of Martin Luther King’s day.

 

GBP-USD @ 1.6340/44

 

R: 1.6403 / 1.6500
S: 1.6338 / 1.6293 / 1.6216

Cable has risen during the day, slightly above the Resistance zone we had been speaking of over the last 3 days. It has come down since then. A significanct rise above the Resistance zone is likely to lead the pair towards the upper end of the long term range which is at 1.6750. If during the next couple of days, the Resistance is not breached significantly, the pair may come down towards 1.61. For today, the Projected Max High and Low is at 1.6403 and 1.6216 respectively. Today, the US is on a holiday and hence there ought to be thin volumes during the US session.

Over the last several months, the pair has been largely oscillating in a long term range 1.5800-1.6750 with small spikes outside the range.

 

AUD-USD @ 0.9255/58…Holding Long

 

R: 0.9280 / 0.9330 / 0.9410
S: 0.9200-0.9180 / 0.9130 / 0.9070

Aussie has risen during the day and is keeping up the overall bullish sentiment intact. As mentioned earlier we might see a rise towards the significant Resistance region 0.9300-30 in the coming sessions, A strong break above 0.9330 might take it further up towards the previous high of 0.9405 (16-Nov-09). Any sharp downmove is not looking likely now and we expect the Support in 0.9200-0.9180 region continue to hold.

We expect the market to remain silent as the US market is closed today on account of Martin Luther King’s day.

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USD-INR Currency Future Report (Traded @ NSE)

Jan 8

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

VOLUMES

There has been a consistent month on month increase in the number of contracts traded in Currency Futures segment at NSE. The number of contracts traded in the last five days is as follows:

Trade Date

Total Contracts

Total Value (Rs. Cr)

RBI Reference Rate

07-Jan-10

3551774

16,264.38

45.87

06-Jan-10

3122643

14,404.19

46.12

05-Jan-10

2789552

12,904.65

46.20

04-Jan-10

3004576

13,968.32

46.51

01-Jan-10

998024

4,662.09

46.65

Avg Daily Volumes

Dec’09

USD

1952.59 Mio

Nov’09

USD

1689.75 Mio

Oct’09

USD

1613.40 Mio

Sep’09

USD

1171.15 Mio

Aug’09

USD

933.63 Mio

Jul’ 09

USD

864.70 Mio

Jun’09

USD

714.75 Mio

May 09

USD

684.12 Mio

Apr’09

USD

490.72 Mio

Mar’09

USD

521.43 Mio

Price watch on 7-01-2010

 

Contract

Best Bid

Best Ask

Spread

LTP

Volume

Value(crores)

OI

No. of Trades

USDINR 270110

1000

45.725

45.733

257

0.0075

45.733

3466001

15870.69

397054

49204

USDINR 240210

4

45.8

45.843

80

0.0425

45.81

78018

358

83162

1352

USDINR 290310

200

45.855

45.94

100

0.085

45.935

6813

31.32

51007

172

USDINR 280410

50

46

46.08

3

0.08

46.06

799

3.68

42349

65

USDINR 270510

2

45.95

46.25

50

0.3

46.2

91

0.42

2752

6

USDINR 280610

1

45.88

46.42

1

0.54

46.28

10

0.04

2422

9

USDINR 280710

1

46.153

46.79

1

0.6375

46.2

25

0.11

987

3

USDINR 270810

1

46.053

46.92

36

0.8675

46.5

10

0.04

449

2

USDINR 280910

3

46.313

46.89

1

0.5775

­

­

­

600

­

USDINR 271010

1

46.21

46.698

1

0.4875

46.5

5

0.02

167

2

USDINR 261110

1

46.41

46.99

2

0.58

46.42

1

­

237

1

USDINR 291210

1

46.13

47.12

1

0.99

46.5

1

­

37

1

Total

3551774

16264.32

581223

50817

CLIENT/ MEMBER LEVEL POSITION LIMITS

At Client level ­6% of OI or USD 10 million whichever is higher At Member level ­15% of OI or USD 50 million whichever is higher At Bank level ­15% of OI or USD 100 million whichever is higher

The client level position limit for 08.01.10 is USD 35.00 Mio The member level position limit for 08.01.10 is USD 87.49 Mio The Bank level position limit for 08.01.10 is USD 100.00 Mio

Client/Member level position limit for last five days are given below:

———-

Open Interest

30 Day Moving Average of Currency Futures (million USD)

Client position limit for the next trading day ( million USD)

Member position limit for the next trading day ( million USD)

07-Jan-10

583267

9621.73

35.00

87.49

06-Jan-10

530557

1999.37

31.83

79.58

05-Jan-10

514323

1939.84

30.86

77.15

04-Jan-10

493837

1909.09

29.63

74.08

01-Jan-10

425183

1860.64

25.51

63.78

————-

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Forex: Market Update/Important levels

Dec 11

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD     1.4688                1.4781, 1.4668
USD/ JPY        87.80                  88.68,   87.34
GBP/ USD     1.6198                           1.6375, 1.6166
USD/ CHF     1.0288                           1.0299, 1.0218
AUD/USD      0.9032                           0.9113, 0.9014
USD/CAD      1.0569                           1.0660, 1.0541
NZD/USD      0.7087                0.7145, 0.7042
EUR/ JPY      128.99                           130.45, 128.77
EUR/ GBP     0.9065                           0.9094, 0.9001
GBP/ JPY      142.25               144.33, 141.99
CHF/ JPY        85.32                 86.37,   85.24

Support                     Resistance               Support                  Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                          USD/ JPY

L1.       1.4470                         1.4915                            88.60                         93.30

L2.       1.4355                         1.5140                            87.10                          95.50
L3.       1.4175                         1.5360                            86.10                          98.85

GBP/ USD                                                       USD/ CHF

L1.       1.6115                                    1.6685                                    1.0275                                    1.0580

L2.       1.5720                                    1.6830                                    1.0040                                    1.0695

L3.       1.5405                                    1.7040                                    0.9750                                    1.0885

AUD/ USD                                                       USD/ CAD

L1.       0.8450                                    0.8830                                    1.0535                                    1.0945

L2.       0.8300                                    0.9050                                    1.0365                                    1.1125

L3.       0.8070                                    0.9120                                    1.0155                                    1.1355

NZD/ USD                                                       EUR/ JPY

L1.       0.6880                                    0.7125                                    131.45                                    135.75

L2.       0.6750                                    0.7260                                    129.75                                    136.90

L3.       0.6535                                    0.7395                                    127.00                                    138.75

EUR/ GBP                                                       EUR/ CHF

L1.       0.8795                                    0.8995                                    1.5110                                    1.5380

L2.       0.8675                                    0.9105                                    1.4905                                    1.5580

L3.       0.8320                                    0.9225                                    1.4670                                    1.5880

GBP/ JPY                                                        CHF/ JPY

L1.       146.10                                    152.50                                      86.30                                     88.65

L2.       142.05                                    157.75                                      85.40                                     90.10

L3.       135.70                                    161.70                                      81.55                                     91.60

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Forex: Market Update

Dec 10

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

The rupee ended at 46.55 against the dollar, above Tuesday’s close of 46.68. The dollar index, a gauge of the US unit’s performance versus six majors, was down 0.4% by late evening.
The sterling and the euro extended losses on Wednesday, dipping below the $1.62-mark for the first time since mid-October, hurt by worries about Britain’s fiscal position. The Indian forex market
tracks the euro and the sterling for clues.

The sterling fell as low as $1.6199, the lowest since October 15. The euro also fell to a one-month low against the dollar on Wednesday, as investors unwound positions in riskier assets ahead of the year-end, prompted, in part, by rising debt woes for Greece and Dubai.

Middle Eastern development and real estate concern asked for a six-month standstill agreement with creditors.  More importantly today, perhaps, Fitch cut Greece’s credit rating to BBB+ from A- and cited concerns over Greece’s medium-term outlook for public finances.  This downgrade in sovereign credit risk impacted the common currency and this could put a small amount of upward pressure on eurozone interest rates, especially if there are concerns that other eurozone countries face a similar action from the ratings agencies.  A further decline in corporate and sovereign credit ratings or credit outlooks could negatively impact the markets and lead to additional safe-haven buying.  These credit actions come at a time when the U.S., U.K., and Japan face immense questions over their public finances with some speculators guessing at least one of those sovereign names could experience a credit downgrade in due course.


(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD     1.4704                1.4867, 1.4679
USD/ JPY        88.38                  89.47,   88.17
GBP/ USD     1.6287                           1.6476, 1.6255
USD/ CHF     1.0266                           1.0285, 1.0163
AUD/USD      0.9046                           0.9163, 0.9019
USD/CAD      1.0631                           1.0670, 1.0486
NZD/USD      0.7073                0.7171, 0.7046
EUR/ JPY      129.98                           132.68, 129.65
EUR/ GBP     0.9026                           0.9093, 0.9007
GBP/ JPY      143.99               147.15, 143.57
CHF/ JPY        86.07                 87.75,   85.84

Support                     Resistance               Support                  Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                          USD/ JPY

L1.       1.4470                                    1.4915                                       88.60                         93.30

L2.       1.4355                         1.5140                            87.10                          95.50
L3.       1.4175                         1.5360                            86.10                          98.85

GBP/ USD                                                       USD/ CHF

L1.       1.6115                                    1.6685                                    1.0275                                    1.0580

L2.       1.5720                                    1.6830                                    1.0040                                    1.0695

L3.       1.5405                                    1.7040                                    0.9750                                    1.0885

AUD/ USD                                                       USD/ CAD

L1.       0.8450                                    0.8830                                    1.0535                                    1.0945

L2.       0.8300                                    0.9050                                    1.0365                                    1.1125

L3.       0.8070                                    0.9120                                    1.0155                                    1.1355

NZD/ USD                                                       EUR/ JPY

L1.       0.6880                                    0.7125                                    131.45                                    135.75

L2.       0.6750                                    0.7260                                    129.75                                    136.90

L3.       0.6535                                    0.7395                                    127.00                                    138.75

EUR/ GBP                                                       EUR/ CHF

L1.       0.8795                                    0.8995                                    1.5110                                    1.5380

L2.       0.8675                                    0.9105                                    1.4905                                    1.5580

L3.       0.8320                                    0.9225                                    1.4670                                    1.5880

GBP/ JPY                                                        CHF/ JPY

L1.       146.10                                    152.50                                      86.30                                     88.65

L2.       142.05                                    157.75                                      85.40                                     90.10

L3.       135.70                                    161.70                                      81.55                                     91.60

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Forex: Daily Market Report

Dec 8

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

EURO Update

The euro lost ground against the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4755 level and was capped around the $1.4905 level.  It extended the recent losses following Friday’s U.S. November non-farm payrolls data (which was better than expected) which implies the U.S. labour market is stronger-than-expected.  Traders continued to pare risk today, especially as U.S. equity markets finished marginally above flat for the day. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Dudley reported the recession is over but added the economy remains weak, adding the Fed’s exit policy will be “complicated but manageable.”  Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke today and said inflation will likely remain “subdued” and added the U.S. economy will continue to face “formidable headwinds.”  Bernanke added the pace of expansion is likely to be “moderate.”  Fed-watchers continue to speculate the Fed will keep monetary policy largely unchanged for some time.  Fed funds futures pared their bets that the Fed will raise rates as early as mid-2010.  In eurozone news, European Central Bank President Trichet testified “the eurozone economy shows increasing signs of recovery” but noted uncertainty remains high.  Trichet also noted inflation expectations remain “firmly anchored.”  ECB member Quaden, referring to when the ECB would begin to remove policy accommodation, said “Let’s wait a bit, because right now we have forecasts that are still, by definition, uncertain. We will wait for more information in the months to come.”  Data released in Germany today saw October manufacturing orders off 2.1% m/m and 8.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4720 level.

Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)

                 (Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD     1.4825                          1.4903, 1.4755
USD/ JPY      89.49                            90.36,   89.04
GBP/ USD     1.6443                           1.6514, 1.6312
USD/ CHF     1.0195                           1.0243, 1.0136
AUD/USD      0.9126                           0.9187, 0.9051
USD/CAD      1.0517                           1.0648, 1.0481
NZD/USD      0.7131                           0.7187, 0.7080
EUR/ JPY      132.66                           134.34, 132.36
EUR/ GBP     0.9014                           0.9062, 0.9005
GBP/ JPY      147.13                           148.81, 146.62
CHF/ JPY        87.75                         88.96,   87.56

Support                     Resistance               Support                  Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                          USD/ JPY

L1.       1.4470                                    1.4915                                       88.60                         93.30

L2.       1.4355                         1.5140                            87.10                          95.50
L3.       1.4175                         1.5360                            86.10                          98.85

GBP/ USD                                                       USD/ CHF

L1.       1.6115                                    1.6685                                    1.0275                                    1.0580

L2.       1.5720                                    1.6830                                    1.0040                                    1.0695

L3.       1.5405                                    1.7040                                    0.9750                                    1.0885

AUD/ USD                                                       USD/ CAD

L1.       0.8450                                    0.8830                                    1.0535                                    1.0945

L2.       0.8300                                    0.9050                                    1.0365                                    1.1125

L3.       0.8070                                    0.9120                                    1.0155                                    1.1355

NZD/ USD                                                       EUR/ JPY

L1.       0.6880                                    0.7125                                    131.45                                    135.75

L2.       0.6750                                    0.7260                                    129.75                                    136.90

L3.       0.6535                                    0.7395                                    127.00                                    138.75

EUR/ GBP                                                       EUR/ CHF

L1.       0.8795                                    0.8995                                    1.5110                                    1.5380

L2.       0.8675                                    0.9105                                    1.4905                                    1.5580

L3.       0.8320                                    0.9225                                    1.4670                                    1.5880

GBP/ JPY                                                        CHF/ JPY

L1.       146.10                                    152.50                                      86.30                                     88.65

L2.       142.05                                    157.75                                      85.40                                     90.10

L3.       135.70                                    161.70                                      81.55                                     91.60

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