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Forex: Market Update/Important Levels

Dec 15

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

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The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4585 level and was capped around the $1.4775 level.  Many data were released in the U.S. today. First, the November import price index printed at +1.7%, up from the revised October print of +0.8%, and was up +3.7% y/y, up from an upwardly revised October reading of -5.6%.  Also, November advance retail sales came in at +1.3%, up from a revised +1.1% reading in October, while the ex-transportation component printed at +1.2%, up from a downwardly revised reading of 0.0%.

Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD     1.4621                           1.4776, 1.4585
USD/ JPY        89.17                          89.79,   88.18
GBP/ USD     1.6239                           1.6338, 1.6195
USD/ CHF     1.0343                           1.0367, 1.0234
AUD/USD      0.9110                           0.9194, 0.9090
USD/CAD      1.0605                           1.0622, 1.0482
NZD/USD      0.7235                          0.7290, 0.7221
EUR/ JPY      130.38                           131.59, 129.91
EUR/ GBP     0.9001                           0.9068, 0.8979
GBP/ JPY      144.82                           145.64, 143.54
CHF/ JPY        86.19                           87.00,   85.93

Support                     Resistance               Support                  Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                          USD/ JPY

L1.       1.4470                        1.4915                             88.60                         93.30

L2.       1.4355                         1.5140                            87.10                          95.50
L3.       1.4175                         1.5360                            86.10                          98.85

GBP/ USD                                                       USD/ CHF

L1.       1.6115                                    1.6685                                    1.0275                                    1.0580

L2.       1.5720                                    1.6830                                    1.0040                                    1.0695

L3.       1.5405                                    1.7040                                    0.9750                                    1.0885

AUD/ USD                                                       USD/ CAD

L1.       0.8450                                    0.8830                                    1.0535                                    1.0945

L2.       0.8300                                    0.9050                                    1.0365                                    1.1125

L3.       0.8070                                    0.9120                                    1.0155                                    1.1355

NZD/ USD                                                       EUR/ JPY

L1.       0.6880                                    0.7125                                    131.45                                    135.75

L2.       0.6750                                    0.7260                                    129.75                                    136.90

L3.       0.6535                                    0.7395                                    127.00                                    138.75

EUR/ GBP                                                       EUR/ CHF

L1.       0.8795                                    0.8995                                    1.5110                                    1.5380

L2.       0.8675                                    0.9105                                    1.4905                                    1.5580

L3.       0.8320                                    0.9225                                    1.4670                                    1.5880

GBP/ JPY                                                        CHF/ JPY

L1.       146.10                                    152.50                                      86.30                                     88.65

L2.       142.05                                    157.75                                      85.40                                     90.10

L3.       135.70                                    161.70                                    81.55                          91.60

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Forex: Market Update

Dec 10

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

The rupee ended at 46.55 against the dollar, above Tuesday’s close of 46.68. The dollar index, a gauge of the US unit’s performance versus six majors, was down 0.4% by late evening.
The sterling and the euro extended losses on Wednesday, dipping below the $1.62-mark for the first time since mid-October, hurt by worries about Britain’s fiscal position. The Indian forex market
tracks the euro and the sterling for clues.

The sterling fell as low as $1.6199, the lowest since October 15. The euro also fell to a one-month low against the dollar on Wednesday, as investors unwound positions in riskier assets ahead of the year-end, prompted, in part, by rising debt woes for Greece and Dubai.

Middle Eastern development and real estate concern asked for a six-month standstill agreement with creditors.  More importantly today, perhaps, Fitch cut Greece’s credit rating to BBB+ from A- and cited concerns over Greece’s medium-term outlook for public finances.  This downgrade in sovereign credit risk impacted the common currency and this could put a small amount of upward pressure on eurozone interest rates, especially if there are concerns that other eurozone countries face a similar action from the ratings agencies.  A further decline in corporate and sovereign credit ratings or credit outlooks could negatively impact the markets and lead to additional safe-haven buying.  These credit actions come at a time when the U.S., U.K., and Japan face immense questions over their public finances with some speculators guessing at least one of those sovereign names could experience a credit downgrade in due course.


(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD     1.4704                1.4867, 1.4679
USD/ JPY        88.38                  89.47,   88.17
GBP/ USD     1.6287                           1.6476, 1.6255
USD/ CHF     1.0266                           1.0285, 1.0163
AUD/USD      0.9046                           0.9163, 0.9019
USD/CAD      1.0631                           1.0670, 1.0486
NZD/USD      0.7073                0.7171, 0.7046
EUR/ JPY      129.98                           132.68, 129.65
EUR/ GBP     0.9026                           0.9093, 0.9007
GBP/ JPY      143.99               147.15, 143.57
CHF/ JPY        86.07                 87.75,   85.84

Support                     Resistance               Support                  Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                          USD/ JPY

L1.       1.4470                                    1.4915                                       88.60                         93.30

L2.       1.4355                         1.5140                            87.10                          95.50
L3.       1.4175                         1.5360                            86.10                          98.85

GBP/ USD                                                       USD/ CHF

L1.       1.6115                                    1.6685                                    1.0275                                    1.0580

L2.       1.5720                                    1.6830                                    1.0040                                    1.0695

L3.       1.5405                                    1.7040                                    0.9750                                    1.0885

AUD/ USD                                                       USD/ CAD

L1.       0.8450                                    0.8830                                    1.0535                                    1.0945

L2.       0.8300                                    0.9050                                    1.0365                                    1.1125

L3.       0.8070                                    0.9120                                    1.0155                                    1.1355

NZD/ USD                                                       EUR/ JPY

L1.       0.6880                                    0.7125                                    131.45                                    135.75

L2.       0.6750                                    0.7260                                    129.75                                    136.90

L3.       0.6535                                    0.7395                                    127.00                                    138.75

EUR/ GBP                                                       EUR/ CHF

L1.       0.8795                                    0.8995                                    1.5110                                    1.5380

L2.       0.8675                                    0.9105                                    1.4905                                    1.5580

L3.       0.8320                                    0.9225                                    1.4670                                    1.5880

GBP/ JPY                                                        CHF/ JPY

L1.       146.10                                    152.50                                      86.30                                     88.65

L2.       142.05                                    157.75                                      85.40                                     90.10

L3.       135.70                                    161.70                                      81.55                                     91.60

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Forex: Daily Market Report

Dec 8

Posted by FxCommcalls in Forex Update | No Comments

EURO Update

The euro lost ground against the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4755 level and was capped around the $1.4905 level.  It extended the recent losses following Friday’s U.S. November non-farm payrolls data (which was better than expected) which implies the U.S. labour market is stronger-than-expected.  Traders continued to pare risk today, especially as U.S. equity markets finished marginally above flat for the day. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Dudley reported the recession is over but added the economy remains weak, adding the Fed’s exit policy will be “complicated but manageable.”  Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke today and said inflation will likely remain “subdued” and added the U.S. economy will continue to face “formidable headwinds.”  Bernanke added the pace of expansion is likely to be “moderate.”  Fed-watchers continue to speculate the Fed will keep monetary policy largely unchanged for some time.  Fed funds futures pared their bets that the Fed will raise rates as early as mid-2010.  In eurozone news, European Central Bank President Trichet testified “the eurozone economy shows increasing signs of recovery” but noted uncertainty remains high.  Trichet also noted inflation expectations remain “firmly anchored.”  ECB member Quaden, referring to when the ECB would begin to remove policy accommodation, said “Let’s wait a bit, because right now we have forecasts that are still, by definition, uncertain. We will wait for more information in the months to come.”  Data released in Germany today saw October manufacturing orders off 2.1% m/m and 8.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4720 level.

Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)

                 (Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD     1.4825                          1.4903, 1.4755
USD/ JPY      89.49                            90.36,   89.04
GBP/ USD     1.6443                           1.6514, 1.6312
USD/ CHF     1.0195                           1.0243, 1.0136
AUD/USD      0.9126                           0.9187, 0.9051
USD/CAD      1.0517                           1.0648, 1.0481
NZD/USD      0.7131                           0.7187, 0.7080
EUR/ JPY      132.66                           134.34, 132.36
EUR/ GBP     0.9014                           0.9062, 0.9005
GBP/ JPY      147.13                           148.81, 146.62
CHF/ JPY        87.75                         88.96,   87.56

Support                     Resistance               Support                  Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                          USD/ JPY

L1.       1.4470                                    1.4915                                       88.60                         93.30

L2.       1.4355                         1.5140                            87.10                          95.50
L3.       1.4175                         1.5360                            86.10                          98.85

GBP/ USD                                                       USD/ CHF

L1.       1.6115                                    1.6685                                    1.0275                                    1.0580

L2.       1.5720                                    1.6830                                    1.0040                                    1.0695

L3.       1.5405                                    1.7040                                    0.9750                                    1.0885

AUD/ USD                                                       USD/ CAD

L1.       0.8450                                    0.8830                                    1.0535                                    1.0945

L2.       0.8300                                    0.9050                                    1.0365                                    1.1125

L3.       0.8070                                    0.9120                                    1.0155                                    1.1355

NZD/ USD                                                       EUR/ JPY

L1.       0.6880                                    0.7125                                    131.45                                    135.75

L2.       0.6750                                    0.7260                                    129.75                                    136.90

L3.       0.6535                                    0.7395                                    127.00                                    138.75

EUR/ GBP                                                       EUR/ CHF

L1.       0.8795                                    0.8995                                    1.5110                                    1.5380

L2.       0.8675                                    0.9105                                    1.4905                                    1.5580

L3.       0.8320                                    0.9225                                    1.4670                                    1.5880

GBP/ JPY                                                        CHF/ JPY

L1.       146.10                                    152.50                                      86.30                                     88.65

L2.       142.05                                    157.75                                      85.40                                     90.10

L3.       135.70                                    161.70                                      81.55                                     91.60

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Forex Snippets

Dec 7

Posted by FxCommcalls in Commodity Update | No Comments

Falling dollar———
The dollar fell from four-week highs on Monday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke doused expectations the U.S. central bank would raise interest rates anytime soon.

Bernanke said that while the U.S. economy has improved, the recovery remains fragile and the unemployment rate could remain high for some time. In remarks before the Economic Club of Washington, he added that he still sees an “extended period” of low rates.

“Bernanke is emphasizing the weakness and the downside to the U.S. economy,” said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist, at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. “Therefore, he’s postponing interest rate hike expectations. He left a very clear impression that rates will remain on hold,”

Upbeat U.S. jobs data last Friday had fueled speculation the Federal Reserve may consider winding down its stimulus measures and start shifting to a tightening bias soon.

After Bernanke’s statements, traders readjusted their interest rate expectations and have squared up their long dollar trades built since Friday.

In early afternoon trading, the ICE Futures’ dollar index .DXY fell 0.5 percent to 75.516 after earlier hitting a more than four-week high at 76.183.

The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.4869 after trading lower for most of the session. It rose as high as $1.4883 following Bernanke’s remarks. In earlier trade, it fell to $1.4757, according to Reuters data, its weakest since November 4.

Comeback of the Dollar? ————-
U.S. multinational shippers reliant on quality imports should be heartened by the fact that the dollar was staging a comeback late last week. As our readers know, the currency has been taking a beating for the past seven years – losing about a third of its value compared to other notes.

Granted, such a decline has mitigated the lopsided trade balance, and sustained some short-sighted exporting strategies. But our most valued economists concur that when it comes to long-term globalized trade, a healthy sawbuck is the best incentive for aggressive business-building.

And since the U.S. dollar is the most actively traded currency in the world, its valuation tends to be reflective of the direct outlook for our economy and our monetary policy.

Dollar Strength——-
The dollar has edged slightly away from its highs of the day, but kept most of its recent gains, against major rivals on Monday in New York. The greenback has been experiencing notable strength since Friday’s jobs report.

The U.S. Labor Department revealed that non-farm payrolls dropped by 11,000 last month, much less than expected, sending the dollar surging away from recently-seen lows.

The greenback moved near 1.4820 against the euro, hovering near the monthly high of 1.4755 reached earlier in the morning.
The buck backed off a 10-day high against the pound and traded near 1.6420 in the late morning. The greenback reached a shigh as 1.6312 earlier in the morning.

The dollar edged lower against the yen, moving near 89.63, after hitting a four-week high on Friday.

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