Posts Tagged Forex Update

New symbol for Indian Currency

The growth story of India is intact and many would be interested in correlating the new symbol with its economic growth and ambition to become an economic super power.

However, the introduction of the new symbol is having a political dimension. While Pranab Mukherjee spoke about ethos of the country in Parliament, it was definitely, on the largest democracy of the world. As compared to other Asian powers, especially China, India’s strength lies in its democracy.

This new symbol is also considered as a step towards internationalisation of Indian rupee.

While the U.S. dollar, the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen are widely traded currencies, Indian rupee is only partially convertible.

Further, majority of world’s currencies are also floating. Convertible currencies are defined as currencies that are readily bought, sold and converted without the permission from a central bank or government entity. The Indian rupee is only partially convertible as the central bank controls the international investments flowing in and out of the country.

With a new symbol, the issue of full capital account convertibility would be revived again. However, the recent global financial crisis again proved that India would not be able to take such risks though one may say this as a weakness for the Indian currency in the global arena.

Mangalore based Foradian Technologies Pvt Ltd has created a new font Rupee_Foradian.
For more details and download of this font visit: Download New rupee font

Related Article: New Symbol For Indian rupee

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Transaction charges for Interest Rate Futures: Waiver Extended

In order to encourage active participation in the Interest Rate Futures contracts in the
Currency Derivatives Segment, currently the Exchange does not levy any transaction
charges.
In order to further encourage participation in the Interest Rate Futures contracts in
the Currency Derivatives Segment, the above waiver of transaction charges has
been extended upto March 31, 2011.
However, every Trading Member participating in trading in the Interest Rate Futures
contracts in the Currency Derivatives Segment at any time during the waiver period
shall be required to make a lump sum contribution of Rs.500/- as contribution to
Investor Protection Fund.


Source : NSE

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Currency Update


The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2795 level and was supported around the $1.2585 level.  The common currency retraced some of yesterday’s losses and traders were surprised by the sharp increase in U.S. April non-farm payrolls data that saw a gain of +290,000, about +100,000 stronger than expectations.  The April unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.9% from 9.7% and April private payrolls printed at +231,000, up from the upwardly revised print of +174,000 in March.  Overall March non-farm payrolls were upwardly revised to +230,000 from +162,000 and even when temporary census workers are factored in, today’s print was relatively strong.  Other data saw April average hourly earnings climb 0.0% m/m and 1.6% y/y while April average weekly hours worked remained steady at 34.1.  The household survey reported the U.S. economy has now added about 1.6 million jobs year-to-date.  Notably, manufacturering jobs increased at their strongest pace since August 1998 and service sector jobs grew the most since November 2006.  Traders will struggle to reconcile continued improvements in the U.S. economy against the backdrop of the weaker aggregate economic climate in Europe and other global risk factors.  There is talk that yesterday’s precipitous decline in U.S. equity prices was caused by human error or program trading.  In eurozone news, German March industrial production was up 4.0% m/m and 8.6%.  Many dealers continue to express disappointment that the European Central Bank did not send more acute signals yesterday regarding its commitment to shoring up confidence in the eurozone.  ECB President Trichet indicated policymakers did not discuss purchasing eurozone bonds in the secondary market but most ECB-watchers believe the central bank will be forced to adopt extensive quantitative easing policies.  Eurozone finance ministers are convening an emergency meeting in Brussels this evening.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2295 level.

¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥92.85 level and was supported around the ¥90.00 figure.  Bank of Japan reported it is going to inject ¥2 trillion into the financial system to assist in stabilizing the markets following yesterday’s volatile global trading activity.  BoJ’s actions represent its first same-day repurchase operations since December when the central bank reacted to the Dubai World crisis and BoJ’s actions were the largest since December 2008.  Finance minister Kan reported Group of Seven officials will hold a conference call to discuss the Greek debt crisis later today.  Albeit the intraday low was exactly ¥90.00, there was no talk the government intervened overnight and a Ministry of Finance official reported joint currency intervention is “unlikely.”  April monetary base data released overnight saw growth of 2.9% y/y.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 3.10% to close at ¥10,364.59.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥96.85 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥118.35 level and was supported around the ¥113.60 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥138.15 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥83.75 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8258 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8266.  Market chatter surfaced today that People’s Bank of China may lifts its interest rate by 27bps no later than June following its announcement last Sunday that it is raising its reserve requirement ratio for the third time this year.  A Chinese think-tank overnight said China should revalue the yuan trading band.  Many dealers believe China will revalue the yuan before the end of the second quarter.

£
The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4475 level and was capped around the $1.4935 level.  Cable continues to move lower on account of political kabuki in the U.K.  Even though the Tories’ Cameron won the most votes in yesterday’s General Election, his party does not have a majority government and there is a lot of horse-trading going on between the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and other minor parties to determine who will be able to form a coalition.  The lack of an outright political majority in the U.K. will hang heavily on the U.K. as that country’s fiscal deficit is among the worst in the industrialized world.  Many data were released in the U.K. today.  First, April Halifax house prices were off 0.1% m/m.  Second, April PPI input prices were up 0.6% m/m and 13.1% y/y while April PPI output was up 1.4% m/m and 5.7% y/y.  Also, PPI core output was up 1.1% m/m and 4.4% y/y.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4335 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8805 level and was supported around the £0.8440 level.

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Risks Involved In Forex Trading

Exchange rate risk. Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the position will be subject to all the price changes.

The most popular measures to cut losses short and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position limit and the loss limit. By the position limitation a maximum amount of a certain currency a trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established. The loss limit is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of stop-loss levels setting.

Interest rate risk. Interest rate risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads, along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward outright, futures, and options. To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the outstanding gaps.

Credit risk. Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk are known:

1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.

2. Settlement risk occurs because of the time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at the different price at different times during the trading day.

Australian and New Zealand dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.

Therefore in assessing the credit risk, end users must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios. The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993 are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counterparty. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counterparty. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.

Dictatorship risk. Dictatorship (sovereign) risk refers to the government’s interference in the Forex activity. Although theoretically present in all foreign exchange instruments, currency futures are, for all practical purposes, excepted from country risk, because the major currency futures markets are located in the USA. Hence, traders have to realize that kind of the risk and be in state to account possible administrative restrictions.

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Forex: Technical Outlook/Resistance-Support

Technical Outlook

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD            1.3560                   1.3597, 1.3440
USD/ JPY                88.98                 89.36,   88.88
GBP/ USD            1.4922                   1.4997, 1.4853
USD/ CHF            1.0785                   1.0885, 1.0756
AUD/USD            0.9028                   0.9057, 0.8956
USD/CAD             1.0331                    1.0441, 1.0307
NZD/USD             0.6953                   0.7004, 0.6922
EUR/ JPY              120.55                   121.32, 119.75
EUR/ GBP            0.9070                   0.9091, 0.9016
GBP/ JPY              132.88                   133.73, 132.49
CHF/ JPY                82.40                   82.92,   81.86

 

Support                                Resistance                          Support                         Resistance

EUR/ USD                                                                                 USD/ JPY

L1.          1.3480                                   1.3965                                      86.95                    93.20

L2.          1.3245                                   1.4200                                      84.85                    95.50

L3.          1.3085                                   1.4495                                      82.30                    98.85

 

GBP/ USD                                                                              USD/ CHF

L1.          1.5345                                   1.5880                                   1.0540                                   1.0830

L2.          1.5160                                   1.6215                                   1.0350                                   1.1045

L3.          1.4950                                   1.6530                                   1.0040                                   1.1315

 

AUD/ USD                                                                              USD/ CAD

L1.          0.8555                                   0.8860                                   1.0560                                   1.0960

L2.          0.8225                                   0.9005                                   1.0400                                   1.1140

L3.          0.8105                                   0.9325                                   1.0150                                   1.1360

 

NZD/ USD                                                                              EUR/ JPY

L1.          0.6535                                   0.6985                                   118.50                                   124.85

L2.          0.6265                                   0.7295                                   115.65                                   128.90

L3.          0.6160                                   0.7430                                   112.05                                   132.85

 

EUR/ GBP                                                                               EUR/ CHF

L1.          0.8500                                   0.9175                                   1.4575                                   1.4875

L2.          0.8320                                   0.9290                                   1.4305                                   1.5010

L3.          0.8190                                   0.9430                                   1.4110                                   1.5450

 

GBP/ JPY                                                                                CHF/ JPY

L1.          135.85                                   141.75                                     81.40                                       85.25

L2.          131.10                                   146.35                                     78.95                                       87.65

L3.          129.35                                   152.90                                     75.05                                      91.60

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